SBIR Grant Success Rates by Agency: What Are Your Chances of Winning?

SBIR Grant Success Rates: What Are Your Chances?

Understanding SBIR grant success rates helps you set realistic expectations and develop a strategic approach to federal funding. The rates vary significantly by agency, phase, and how well your proposal is prepared.

Overall SBIR Success Rates

Across all federal agencies, the average SBIR Phase I success rate is approximately 15-25%. This means roughly 1 in 4 to 1 in 7 proposals receives funding. Phase II success rates are generally higher, ranging from 35-50%, because only companies with successful Phase I results are eligible.

Success Rates by Agency

NIH (National Institutes of Health)

Phase I Success Rate: 15-22%
Phase II Success Rate: 35-45%
Annual SBIR Budget: ~$1.2 billion
Key Factor: NIH receives the highest volume of applications, making it competitive but offering the most opportunities. See our complete NIH SBIR guide.

NSF (National Science Foundation)

Phase I Success Rate: 15-20% (of invited full proposals)
Phase II Success Rate: 45-55%
Annual SBIR Budget: ~$250 million
Key Factor: NSF's Project Pitch system pre-screens proposals, so the success rate for full proposals is higher than average. See our complete NSF SBIR guide.

DoD (Department of Defense)

Phase I Success Rate: 15-25% (varies by component)
Phase II Success Rate: 40-50%
Annual SBIR Budget: ~$2 billion
Key Factor: DoD has the most topic-specific solicitations, so matching your technology to the right topic is critical. See our complete DoD SBIR guide.

DOE (Department of Energy)

Phase I Success Rate: 20-30%
Phase II Success Rate: 40-50%
Annual SBIR Budget: ~$400 million
Key Factor: DOE focuses on energy and clean technology, with strong emphasis on commercialization potential

NASA

Phase I Success Rate: 15-20%
Phase II Success Rate: 45-55%
Annual SBIR Budget: ~$200 million
Key Factor: NASA SBIR topics are highly specific to space and aeronautics needs

USDA, EPA, and Smaller Agencies

Phase I Success Rate: 20-35%
Key Factor: Smaller agencies often have less competition, meaning higher success rates for well-prepared proposals

Factors That Influence Your Success Rate

Proposal Quality

The single biggest factor in winning SBIR funding is proposal quality. Avoiding common application mistakes and writing a strong proposal can dramatically increase your personal success rate above the averages.

Agency and Topic Match

Submitting to the right agency and topic is essential. Understanding the differences between SBIR and STTR and choosing the right program can improve your odds.

Prior SBIR Experience

Companies that have won SBIR awards before tend to have higher success rates. Their experience with the process, review criteria, and agency culture gives them an advantage.

Commercialization Track Record

Agencies increasingly weight commercialization potential. Companies that can demonstrate market traction, customer interest, or previous successful technology transitions score higher.

Professional Assistance

Companies that work with experienced SBIR grant writers typically see higher success rates. Professional consultants understand what reviewers look for and help avoid the pitfalls that sink first-time proposals.

How to Maximize Your Success Rate

1. Apply to Multiple Agencies

Do not put all your eggs in one basket. If your technology has applications across multiple agencies, apply to multiple opportunities simultaneously. This is perfectly legal and dramatically increases your overall probability of getting funded.

2. Start with the Right Registrations

Complete your SAM.gov registration and agency-specific registrations well in advance so you never miss a deadline due to administrative delays.

3. Build a Strong Budget

A well-constructed SBIR budget that aligns with your technical plan demonstrates competence and increases reviewer confidence in your ability to execute.

4. Develop a Compelling Commercialization Plan

Market analysis, customer evidence, and a realistic path to revenue are essential components that differentiate winning proposals from rejected ones.

5. Resubmit If You Do Not Win

Many successful SBIR companies did not win on their first attempt. Use reviewer feedback to strengthen your proposal and resubmit. Understanding SBIR timelines helps you plan resubmission cycles.

6. Consider Your Eligibility

Make sure you fully meet SBIR eligibility requirements before investing time in a proposal. Companies that are foreign-owned or exceed size limits are automatically disqualified.

The Bottom Line on SBIR Success Rates

While overall SBIR success rates of 15-25% may seem daunting, remember that many rejected proposals have fundamental flaws that are entirely avoidable. A well-prepared proposal from a qualified company targeting the right agency can achieve success rates significantly above the average. And the payoff is substantial: SBIR grants are non-dilutive funding that never needs to be repaid.

Contact MJP Grant Consulting for a free consultation and learn how we can help improve your SBIR success rate.

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